在线棋牌唯一官方网站

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                                    塞下秋来风景异,明年空铜又多镍

                                    作者:戴俊生 来源:恒泰期货研究所 时间:2019年12月20日

                                    摘要

                                    Ø  美国经济增速或将放缓,铜价与美国GDP相关性较强。明年是美国大选之年,中美贸易谈判在曲折中前进,对铜价扰动会加大。

                                    Ø  2020年全球主要铜精矿企业扩产计划仍不大,铜矿加工费处于低位,意味着铜精矿供应仍然偏紧,明年下半年是个拐点。

                                    Ø  明年废铜进口收紧的压力将减小,全球被动去库存,低库存对铜价仍有支撑。空调库存仍需去化、汽车需求或止跌企稳,电网投资难超预期。

                                    Ø  铜精矿成本上升空间不大,预计未来沪铜指数波动区间为43000-51800元/吨。

                                    操作策略:对于短线多单投资者,可在沪铜指数回调充分时,逐步建仓做多,入场价位控制在47000-49000元/吨区间。中线空单投资者,可在51500元/吨附近布局空单。

                                    Ø  印尼明年1月将实施禁矿政策,供需缺口将进一步放大,目前抢出口效应明显,镍库存处于历史低位支撑镍价。

                                    Ø  不锈钢产量仍在增加,预估2020年各系列产量继续增长,但增速较2019年放缓。库存短期回落,新能源汽车补贴退坡后增速下滑,但长期替换需求较大。

                                    Ø  镍价正处于上升的第四浪调整,未来大概率在完成四浪下跌过程后进入五浪反弹。预计明年沪镍指数的波动区间为:100000 -130000元/吨。

                                    操作策略:对于中线多单投资者可在镍价调整充分时做多,入场价位控制在元/吨。

                                    一、行情回顾

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站ZAIGUOQUDEYINIANLI,YOUSEBANKUAIZHISHUJINGLILELIANGLUNSHANGZHANG,LIANGLUNXIADIE。NIANCHUZHISHUZHANKAILEDIYILUNSHANGZHANG,ZHUYAOSHOUDAOMEIGUOXUANBUBUTIGAO2000YIGUANSHUIYINGXIANG,SHANGZHANGCHIXULEYIGEJIDU。3YUEMODETURANXIADIE,SHICHANGYIZHENDANYOU, 6YUEDIZHISHUSHENZHIJIANGNIANCHUDEQIZHANGDIANDIEPO。G20FENGHUIQIJIAN,LINGDAORENDEHUIWUJISHICHANGCHILEDINGXINWAN,ZHISHUYILUSHANGXING,YIZHIDAO9YUEDI。3000YIMEIYUANGUANSHUIDESHISHI,LIANXULIANGGEYUEZHISHUJIANGZHANGFUQUANBUCHIHUI,12YUEHAIDACHULEXINDI。ZAI12YUEZHONGXIAXUN,ZHONGMEIDIYIJIEDUANDEWENBENXIEYIDACHENG,SHICHANGYIGAIWANGRIDEDIMI,ZAICIFANDAN。KENENGSHICHUNJIEDELINJIN,SHANGZHANGDELIDUSHAORUO,YUJIMINGNIANMAOYITANPANDEJIEZOURENGJIANGZHUDAOYOUSEZHISHUDEZOUSHI。

                                    二、贸易摩擦缓和,经济下行压力尤存

                                    (一)中美达成第一阶段协议文本

                                    2019NIAN12YUE13RI,ZHONGMEISHUANGFANGJUNXUANCHENGYIJIUDIYIJIEDUANJINGMAOXIEYIWENBENDACHENGYIZHI,HOUXUXUWANCHENGFALVSHENHE、FANYIXIAODUIYIJIZHENGSHIQIANSHUDENGBUZHOU。XIEYINEIRONGHANGAIZHISHICHANQUAN、JISHUZHUANRANG、NONGYE、JINRONGFUWU、HUOBI、KUODAMAOYIHEZHENGDUANJIEJUEQIGEFANGMIAN。ZHONGMEIDACHENGDIYIJIEDUANXIEYI,JIANGDILETUOGOUFENGXIAN,BIMIANLEZHONGMEIMAOYIMOCAJINYIBUSHENGJI,RUOLUOSHIZESHIZHONGGUOGAIGEKAIFANGDEZHONGDAJINZHAN。CONGSHICHANGFANYINGLAIKAN,WULUNSHIGUPIAOSHICHANGHAISHISHANGPINSHICHANGFANYINGJIJI,TONGJIABANGEYUEZHANGYU4%,GONGYEPINJUNSHOUDAOTIZHEN。RANER,MINGNIANSHIMEIGUODAXUANZHINIAN,QIANJICIJIAZHENGDEGUANSHUISHANGWEIQUXIAO,LIZUIZHONGDACHENGHAIYOUHENZHANGDELUYAOZOU。

                                    (二)11月经济数据回暖,下行压力仍存

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站2019NIAN11YUEFEN,PPITONGBIXIAJIANG1.4%,HUANBIXIAJIANG0.1%;GONGYESHENGCHANZHEGOUJINJIAGETONGBIXIAJIANG2.2%,HUANBIXIAJIANG0.1%。1—11YUEPINGJUN,GONGYESHENGCHANZHECHUCHANGJIAGEBIQUNIANTONGQIXIAJIANG0.3%,GONGYESHENGCHANZHEGOUJINJIAGEXIAJIANG0.7%。11YUEFEN,GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEZENGJIAZHITONGBISHIJIZENGZHANG6.2%,BI10YUEFENJIAKUAI1.5GEBAIFENDIAN。CONGHUANBIKAN,11YUEFEN,GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEZENGJIAZHIBISHANGYUEZENGZHANG0.78%。1—11YUEFEN,GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEZENGJIAZHITONGBIZENGZHANG5.6%。CONGSHUJULAIKAN,PPILIANXUWUGEYUEFUZENGZHANG,BIAOMINGNEIXURENGRANBUZU;ERGONGYEZENGJIAZHIDEFANDAN,XIANSHILESHENGCHANHUODONGDESHENGFUCHAOSHICHANGYUQI。BUGUOJIBIANRUCI,JINGJIDEXIAXINGYALIRENGCUN。YUJIZHOUQIXINGDEZHENGCEFANGSONGJIANGJIXU,JINGUANLIDUKENENGLVEYOUJIANGDI。

                                    三、铜价长期宏观扰动,短期关注扩产计划

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站TONGJIAYUMEIGUOGDPHUANBIZENGSUCUNZAIZHEHENQIANGDEZHENGXIANGGUANXING。MUQIANMEIGUOJINGJIZHENGCHUYUFANRONGDEDINGDIAN,DANTUISHIYIXIAN:SUIRANMEIGUOGDPSHUJUHENPIAOLIANG,SHIYELVYEHENDI,DANXIAOFEIQUEZAIXIAHUA,GERENSHOURUZENGZHANG、GERENKEZHIPEISHOURUYIJIGERENXIAOFEIZENGZHANGLVDEXIAHUADUIYUMEIGUOZHEIGEXIAOFEIDAGUOLAISHUOSHIJINGJIJIJIANGGUAITOUXIAXINGDEYUZHAO。YUJIMEIGUOGDPZENGSUWEILAIKENENGHUIFANGHUANZHI2%DAO2.5%,LMETONGJIADAGAILVJIANGGENSUIXIAXING。

                                    (一)2020年铜精矿供应仍然偏紧

                                    1.全球主要铜精矿企业扩产计划延后

                                    JIEZHI 2019 NIAN11YUEDI,SHIDATONGJINGKUANGQIYE2019NIANCHANLIANGYUJIZAI1075WANDUN,DIYUYUQI1103WANDUNCHANLIANG,ZHUYAOYUANYINZAIYUZIYOUGANGCHANLIANGXIAJIANGCHAOSHICHANGYUQI,CIWAI,ZHILIGUOTONGKUANGJINGLAOHUA,ZHILIJIDUANTIANQI、BAGONGSHIJIANDENGYINSUPINFA,JIASHANGGANGGUOHEZANBIYACUNZAISHUIWUZHENGDUAN,SHIDAJINGTONGKUANGQIYECHANLIANGXIANGDUIQUNIANZHENGTIXIAOFUSHOUSUO。GENJUTONGJI,KUANGSHANDEFUCHANYIJIXINZENGCHANNENGDEGONGYINGDADUOZAI2021NIANYIHOU,2020NIANXIABANNIANZHONGXIAOXINGTONGQIXINJIANCHANNENGHUOYOUSUODACHAN,YUJIZONGLIANGZAI40.6WANDUN。TONGJINGKUANGZHIJINGLIANTONGGONGXUHUORENGYOUYIDINGCUOPEI,DANZHENGTISHANGJIANGYOUSUOHAOZHUAN。2020NIANTONGGONGYINGZHENGTIYANXUJINZHANG,GONGYINGDUANZHONGDIANGUANZHUZHILIFANGMIANMEIYOUCHUXIANJIAODAGANRAOHECHUANTONGTOUBUTONGQIZENGJIANCHANQINGKUANG。

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站GENJUWOMENZHIZUODEGONGXUPINGHENGBIAO,MEINIAN2-5YUECHUTONGXIAOFEICHUYUCHUNJIEWANGJI,JINSHUXIAYOUJIAGONGHEZHONGDUANXIAOFEIQIYECHANNENGLIYONGLVHUIZHUBUTIGAO,MAOYISHANGHEXIAOFEISHANGYUANCAILIAOBUKUHUODONGHUISUIZHEGONGYESHENGCHANJIANSHEHUODONGDEZHONGQIERQUYUWANGSHENG,TONGJIATONGCHANGCHIXUDAFUZOUGAO,YINIANDANGZHONGDEZUIGAODIANYECHANGCHANGZAIZHEIGESHIHOU;SUIHOUCHUNJIEGAOFENGJIESHU,6YUEZHONGXUNZUOYOU,TONGJIAWANGWANGHUIJINGLIJIAODAFUDUDEDIAOZHENG;6-9YUEHUIYINGLAITONGJIADEDIERLUNSHANGZHANG,YOUYUQIUJIXIAOFEIWANGWANGBUJICHUNJI,ZHEIGESHIHOUTONGJIAHUICHUXIANNIANNEICIGAODIAN,DONGJIJIAGEHUIJINRUDIAOZHENGJIEDUAN,CHIXUDESHIJIANYEHUIBIJIAOZHANG。

                                    201910月,中国铜原料联合谈判组(CSPT)敲定4季度铜精矿TC 66美元/吨,较去年降低 20 %。而智利矿业巨头Antofagasta与江铜、铜陵有色签订2020年上半年TC长单价格为mids-6065美元/吨上下)。铜矿加工费仍在下行,表明未来原料端仍将偏紧,预计明年下半年,随着矿端压力缓解,加工费将逐步反弹。

                                    2. 明年废铜进口缩紧压力可能会缓解

                                    2019 KAISHI,FEIQILEIJINKOUJIBENSHANGJIANGBEIJINZHI,ZHEIYIWEIZHE2018NIANPIWENLIANGJIANGCHENGWEI 2019 NIANFEIJIUTONGGONGYINGDEJIANLIANG。2019NIAN11YUE,ZHONGGUOYOUSEJINSHUGONGYEXIEHUIMISHUZHANGWANGJIWEIZAICAIFANGZHONGTIDAO,ZHONGGUONIXIUGAILIULEIFEITONGJINKOUBIAOZHUN。XIUGAIHOU,GAODUANJINKOULIULEIFEITONGZHUANWEIKEZAISHENGTONGERBUSHIFEITONG。XINDEBIAOZHUNYUJIZAIMINGNIAN3YUEFENHUOZHEDI2JIDUKAISHISHISHI。ERDIDUANLIULEIFEITONGRENGSHOUJINKOUPEIEXIANZHI,XIUGAILIULEIFEITONGJINKOUBIAOZHUNHUOJIANGHUANJIEMINGNIANFEITONGJINKOUSUOJINDEYALI。

                                    3.国内产量回升,进口铜下滑

                                    2019NIAN,ZHONGGUOTONGJIJUGONGBUDEJINGLIANTONGCHANLIANGTONGBIZENGSUGAODA 8 %;LINGWAIYIFANGMIAN,WEIDUANZAOTONGHETONGCAIQIAN 10 GEYUEDEJINKOULIANGTONGBIJIANG10 %,TONGSHIJINGTONGKUANGJINGJINKOUCHUXIAN -12 %DEJIANGFU。GUONEIYELIANCHANNENGZENGDADUITONGJINGKUANGJINKOUXINGCHENGYIDINGPAIJIXIAOYING,DIEJIANIANNEIGUONEITONGXIAOFEIXUQIUYOUSUOJIANGDI,JINGLIANTONGHETONGCAIJINKOUJUNCHUXIANXIAHUA。YUQIMINGNIANHAIWAITONGGONGYINGJIANSHAO,GUONEITOUCHANZENGJIA,JINKOUTONGJIANGJINYIBUXIAHUA。


                                    4. 低库存对铜价有支撑

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站JIEZHI12YUE12RI,LUNDUNJINSHUJIAOYISUOTONGKUCUNWEI17.58WANDUN,YUQUNIANTONGQIXIANGBIZENGJIA5.4WANDUN,ZENGFUFUDA30%;SHANGHAIYINJITONGKUCUN11.72WANDUN,CHUYULIANGNIANYILAIDEDIWEI。WEILAIWOMENRENWEIGUONEIFEITONGXIANZHIDAOZHIJINGTONGDUIFEITONGDETIDAIRENGJIANGCHIXU,XINZENGCHANNENGHAIWEISHIFANG,QUANQIUCHUYUBEIDONGQUKUJIEDUANZHONG,KUCUNDUITONGJIARENGYOUZHICHENGZUOYONG。

                                    (二)下游需求,拖累铜价

                                    1.空调库存高,产量下滑

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站2019NIANSHANGBANNIANJIAYONGKONGDIAOXIAOSHOUCHUHUOLIANGTONGBIXIAHUA1.5%,ERZAI2018NIANSHANGBANNIANJIAYONGKONGDIAODEXIAOSHOUCHUHUOLIANGZETONGBIZENGZHANGLE14.3%。XIANGBIQUNIANSHANGBANNIAN,GUONEIJIAYONGKONGDIAOXINGYEJINNIANSHANGBANNIAN“LENG”YISHIZU。ZAIJINGJI、FANGDICHAN、TIANQIDENGDUOZHONGYINSUYINGXIANGXIA,JIAYONGKONGDIAOMIANLINZHEZHONGDUANXUQIUBUZHENHEKUCUNGAOQI。2020NIANSHOUXIANDEXIAOHAOGAOWEIDEKONGDIAOKUCUN,FOUZECHANLIANGNANYIQIWENHUISHENG,WOMENRENWEIMINGNIANKONGDIAOCHANLIANGZENGSUJIANGJIXUTANDI。

                                    2.电网投资需求有支撑,难有超预期表现

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站2020NIANSHI“SHISANWU”GUIHUADESHOUGUANZHINIAN,GENJUWOMENDUIDIANLI“SHISANWU”GUIHUADEGENZONG,FAXIANDABUFENZHIBIAOQISHIZAOYITIQIANWANCHENG,JISHISHIYOUSHENGYUZHIBIAOXUYAOZAI19NIANWANCHENG,ZHENGGEGONGZUOLIANGYEBINGBUPANGDA,JIBENYU2016-2018NIANJUNZHIXIANGDANG。QIZHONGDIANLIZONGZHUANGJIJINNIAN1-10YUEFENYIJINGLEIJIWANCHENG0.7YIQIANWAN,LEIJI19.7YIQIANWA,JULI2020NIANMUBIAO20YIQIANWANJINYOU0.3YIQIANWADEJULI。2020NIANYIN“SHISANWU”JIHUAERXUJIAKUAITOUZIDEXUQIUBUGAO。CIWAI,GUOJIADIANWANG2019NIANDIFABU《GUANYUJINYIBUYANGEKONGZHITOUZIDETONGZHI》,YANJINSHANZIKUODATOUZIJIEMIAN,DUJUEWUXIAOTOUZI,DALIYAJIANJIAKONGXIANRUCHIDENGTOUZI。GAITONGZHIDUIGUOWANGDETOUZIJIANSHESILUYOUZHONGDAYIYI,DUIYUWEILAIGUOWANGTOUZIJIAOYIQIANHUOYOUGENGDUOXIANZHI。

                                    3.汽车销量跌势放缓,明年或将企稳

                                    2019NIAN11YUEZHONGGUOXIAYICHENGYONGCHESHICHANGXIAOLIANGDA193.7WANLIANG,TONGBIXIAJIANG4.1%,JIAO10YUETONGBIZENGSUGAISHAN2GEBAIFENDIAN,XIAHUAQUSHIJIANHUAN;HUANBIZENGZHANG5.1%,XIANGBIYU2018NIANDE11YUEHUANBI3%ZENGSU,JINNIAN11YUEXIAOLIANGDEZOUSHIYOUSUOGAISHAN;1-11YUELEIJIXIAOLIANGDA1856.3WANLIANG,TONGBIXIAJIANG7.9%,XIAJIANGFUDUJIAO1-10YUESHOUZHAI1GEBAIFENDIAN,SHUOMINGCHESHIZHENGTIYOUSUOHUINUAN。

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站11YUE15RI,GUOJIAFAGAIWEITICHUYAOPOCHUQICHEXIAOFEIXIANZHI,TANSUOTUIXINGZHUBUFANGKUANHUOQUXIAOXIANGOUDEJUTICUOSHI,TUIDONGQICHEXIANGOUZHENGCEXIANGYINDAOSHIYONGZHENGCEZHUANBIAN。12YUE3RI,GONGYEHEXINXIHUABUGONGBU《XINNENGYUANQICHECHANYEFAZHANGUIHUA(2021-2035NIAN)》(ZHENGQIUYIJIANGAO)TICHUDAO2025NIAN,XINNENGYUANQICHEXINCHEXIAOLIANGZHANBIDADAO25%ZUOYOU,ZHINENGWANGLIANQICHEXINCHEXIAOLIANGZHANBIDADAO30%。WOMENRENWEI2020NIANQICHECHANLIANGJIXUXIAHUADEGAILVJIAODI,DAGAILVJIANGQIWENFANDAN。

                                    (三)铜精矿成本上升空间不大

                                    2019NIANTONGJINGKUANGCHENGBENZONGTISHISHANGYIDE,DANSHIKUANGSHANGDELIRUNYIJINGBUJIQIANQI。WEILAIWOMENRENWEICHENGBENJIXUSHANGYIDEKONGJIANBINGBUDA,YIFANGMIANSHIYINWEIYOUJIACHUYUXIANGDUIDEGAOWEI;LINGYIFANGMIAN,WEILAIKUANGSHANLAOZITANPANCHENGBENYEJIANGXIAJIANG。2020NIAN,WOMENYUQIQUANQIUTONGKUANGCHENGBENHUONANYIFASHENGBENZHIDEBIANHUA,ZHENGTIHUOYU2019NIANCHIPING。

                                    四、禁矿实施后,镍价仍将上行

                                    (一)禁矿将导致供应缺口扩大

                                    1.印尼将在明年一月禁矿

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站ZHEISHIJINNIANNEIYINNIDIERCITIQIANDUINIEKUANGDECHUKOUJINLING,YINNIZHENGFUZAISHANGYUEJIANGYUANDINGYU2022NIANSHISHIDECHUKOUJINLINGTIQIANZHI2020NIAN1YUESHISHI。YINNISHIQUANQIUZUIDANIEKUANGSHICHUKOUGUO。9YUE,ZHONGGUOJINKOUSHANGGANZAIYINDUNIXIYACHUKOUJINLINGSHENGXIAOQIAN“QIANGHUO”,DANGYUEZHONGGUOZIYINDUNIXIYAJINKOULE250WANDUNNIEKUANGSHI,JIAO8YUEZENGZHANG50%YISHANG,YESHI2014NIANCHUYILAIDEZUIGAOSHUIPING。ZHEIYANGDEQINGXINGYU5NIANQIANYINNISHISHIXIANZHIQIANDEQINGXINGRUCHUYIZHE,2014NIAN,YINNICENGYIDUJINZHICHUKOUNIEKUANGSHI,ZUIZHONGSHIDENIEJIASHENGZHIMEIDUNYU20000MEIYUAN。

                                    2. 禁矿之前抢出口效应明显

                                    CONGNIEKUANGJINKOUFANGMIANLAIKAN,9 YUEFENDEJINKOULIANGCHUANGLEXINGAO,JINKOUZONGLIANG 708.95 WANDUN,HUAN BI 8 YUEZENGJIA24%,TONGBIQUNIANTONGQIZENGJIA 23.15%;QIZHONGZIYINNINIEKUANGJINKOULIANG247 WANDUN, HUANBISHANGSHENG 53.7%,TONGBIQUNIANTONGQIZENGJIA45.4%;ZIFEILVBINNIEKUANGJINKOULIANG 438.79 WANDUN, HUANBIZENGJIA10%,TONGBIQUNIANTONGQIZENGJIA 14.8%。CONGNIEKUANGDEJINKOUSHUJULAIKAN,9YUETURANZENGJIALEJINKOULIANG, YOUQISHIFEILVBINHEYINNIDEJINKOULIANG,ZHEIDUIYUQIYELAISHUOTIQIANZENGJIAJINKOU,YOULIYUBAOZHANGJINKUANGHOUDEGONGYINGLIANG。

                                    3.国内外库存持续走低

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站JIEZHI12YUE16RI,SHANGQISUOHUNIEKUCUN 3.6WANDUN,YU10YUEXIANGBIZHOUJIAN1.2WANDUN;LME NIE6.68WANDUN,HUANBIJIANSHAO13%。GUONEINIEBANGONGYINGXIANZHUXIAHUA,DUINIESHIXINGCHENGLIHAOZHICHI,ZHUYAOZAIYUNIEDOUKUCUNXIAJIANG,XINNENGYUANLIUSUANNIEZHIBEIDUINIEDOUDEXUQIUZHUJIANYOUSUOTIXIAN。GUONEIRENGCHUYUQUKUJIEDUAN。

                                    (二)不锈钢及新能源汽车产量仍有空间

                                    MUQIANWOGUOYUANSHENGNIEZHUYAOYINGYONGYUSIDALINGYU:BUXIUGANG、DIANDU、HEJINZHUZAO、DIANCHILINGYU。GENJU2017NIANDESHUJUTONGJIBUXIUGANGXINGYENIEXIAOFEILIANGWEI92WANDUN,ZHANBI82%;DIANDUXINGYE6.4WANDUN,ZHANBI5.9%;HEJINZHUZAOLINGYU5.6WANDUN,ZHANBI5.2%;DIANCHILINGYU2.7WANDUN,ZHANBI2.5%;QITAXINGYEYUE1.5WANDUN。YINCI,BUXIUGANGDEGONGXUMIANCHENGWEIYINGXIANGNIEXUQIUDEZHONGYAOYINSU;CIWAI,SUIZHEXINNENGYUANQICHEDEZHUBUTUIGUANG,DIANCHIXUQIUYURIJUZENG,BUGUOZICONGBUTIEQUXIAOHOU,XINNENGYUANQICHECHANXIAOLIANGZENGSUZHUBUXIAHUA。

                                    1.不锈钢产量维持在高位

                                    2019NIANZHONGGUOBUXIUGANGCHANLIANGDAFUZENGZHANG,200XIZENGFUZUIWEIXIANZHU,300XICHANLIANGYICHUXIANMINGXIANZENGZHANG,BUGUOZHEIYEDAOZHILEKUCUNDECHIXULEIJI。YUGU2020NIANGEXILIECHANLIANGJIXUZENGZHANG,ZENGSUJIANGJIAO2019NIANFANGHUAN,ZENGLIANGKENENGRENGJIZHONGZAI200XIHE300XI。

                                    JINQIGUONEIWUXI、FOSHANLIANGDIBUXIUGANGKUCUNDOUCHUXIANLEXIAHUA,KUCUNYALIZHENGZHUBUHUANJIE,YOUQISHI300XIHE400XI。

                                    2. 新能源汽车仍有释放空间

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站2019NIANZHONGGUOXINNENGYUANQICHEBUTIEZHENGCETUIPOHOU,XINNENGYUANQICHEZENGSUMINGXIANFANGHUAN,10YUEFENXIAOLIANGYIDUCHUXIANTONGBI45%DEXIAHUA,SANYUANCAILIAOCHANLIANGYIMINGXIANXIAHUA,TUIPOYINGXIANGCHAOCHUSHICHANGYUQI,DICHENGBENGAOANQUANXINGDELINSUANTIELIDIANCHIZAICIJIZHANSANYUANDIANCHIFENE,YUGU2020NIANSANYUANDIANCHIDUINIEXUQIUTUIDONGLIANGYIYOUXIAN,QIDUINIEXUQIUBAOFAQIKENENGYANHOUDAO2021-2022NIANYIHOU。

                                    五、波动性分析

                                    (一)铜价反弹沽空

                                    CONGMUQIANLUNTONGYUEXIANZOUSHITUSHANGLAIKAN,TONGJIAMUQIANSHICHUYUDUI5518MEIYUAN/DUN—7348MEIYUAN/DUNXIADIEDEXIUZHENGJIEDUAN,JINQIJIAGEZAI5500FUJINDEZHICHENGJIAOQIANG,YEJIBENFUHEMUQIANTONGKUANGGONGYINGPIANJINDEJIBENMIAN,JIANYUXIAYOUXUQIUPIRUOYIJI2020NIANHOUTONGKUANGTOUFANGDEJINDU,WOMENRENWEIHOUQITONGJIADAGAILVHUIZOUCHUCHONGGAOHUILUOXINGQING,FANDANDEYALIWEIHUOZAI6785MEIYUAN/DUNFUJIN,HOUQIJIANGHUILUOSHITAN5518MEIYUAN/DUNDEZHICHENG,RUGUODIEPOKENENGZHIJIESHITAN53500MEIYUAN/DUNQUJIANDEZHICHENG。

                                    (二)镍价震荡上行

                                    从图形上来看,镍价已经从18850高点回吐了15% 的涨幅,12月开始反弹至12万点附近,整体趋势来看,镍价仍处于第一浪的上涨趋势中,整个趋势线并没有前期的回荡而破坏掉,预期明年镍价波动区间为12500美元/吨-18850美元/吨。

                                    六、结论以及操作建议

                                    (一)分析结论

                                    铜:美国经济增速或将放缓,铜价与美国GDP相关性较强。明年是美国大选之年,中美贸易谈判在曲折中前进,对铜价扰动会加大。2020年全球主要铜精矿企业扩产计划仍不大,铜矿加工费处于低位,意味着铜精矿供应仍然偏紧,明年下半年是个拐点。明年废铜进口收紧的压力将减小,全球被动去库存,低库存对铜价仍有支撑。空调库存仍需去化、汽车需求或止跌企稳,电网投资难超预期。铜精矿成本上升空间不大,预计未来沪铜指数波动区间为43000-51800元/吨。

                                    操作策略:对于短线多单投资者,可在沪铜指数回调充分时,逐步建仓做多,入场价位控制在47000-49000元/吨区间。中线空单投资者,可在51500元/吨附近布局空单。

                                    镍:印尼明年1月将实施禁矿政策,供需缺口将进一步放大,目前抢出口效应明显,镍库存处于历史低位支撑镍价。不锈钢产量仍在增,预估2020年各系列产量继续增长,但增速较2019年放缓。库存短期回落,新能源汽车补贴退坡后增速下滑,但长期替换需求较大。镍价正处于上升的第四浪调整,未来大概率在完成四浪下跌过程后进入五浪反弹。预计明年沪镍指数的波动区间为:100000 -130000元/吨。

                                    操作策略:对于中线多单投资者可在镍价调整充分时做多,入场价位控制在元/吨。

                                    (二)风险因素分析

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站DUI2020NIANYOUSEJINSHUDEPANDUAN,CUNZAIYIXIAJIGEFENGXIANYINSUXUYAOYINQIGAODUGUANZHU:

                                    1)        在线棋牌唯一官方网站由于美联储实行加息,导致美元指数继续大幅上涨,金属品种持续下跌。

                                    2)        在线棋牌唯一官方网站央行进行降息等刺激性货币政策,市场流动性超预期增强,到时商品价格集体上涨,铜价受到带动突破56000点。

                                    3)        中美贸易摩擦谈判继续僵化,延续互征关税老路,导致价格大幅下挫。

                                    YISHANGZHEIXIEYINSUZHONGDERENHEYIGECHUXIAN,DOUYOUKENENGDAOZHIYOUSEJINSHUZOUSHIDEPANDUANBUZAICHENGLI,HUOZHEZHEIYANGDEJIELUNJIANGCHENGSHOUJUDAKAOYAN。SUOYI,ZAI2020NIAN,WOMENXUYAOZHONGDIANGUANZHUZHEIXIEYINSUDEFUMIANYINGXIANG,JISHIDIAOZHENGTOUCUN,ZUOHAOCANGWEIGUANLI。

                                    七、金属板块其他品种行情展望

                                    贵金属:从金融周期角度看,美国金融周期处于加速走向波峰阶段,欧洲金融周期处于由正转负的阶段,而中国金融周期处于逐步寻底的阶段。短期来看,中美贸易摩擦由对抗转向谈判,金价有回调压力;中长期来看,全球经济增长乏力的背景下,逆周期宽松很容易导致通胀的产生,黄金无论在对抗通胀还是其他风险方面都将是最好的选择。

                                    锌:未来海外矿山仍有供应增加的预期,目前冶炼利润仍然较高,表明锌精矿的供应较为充足。供需之间的矛盾还在于低库存对价格的强支撑,造成价格下跌易反弹,我们认为2020年锌价大幅下跌的可能性较低,重点关注价格回落的过程中,加工费的变化,如果加工费也能跟着下来,很容易造成锌价的大幅反弹,预计波动区间为:16000/-19000/吨。

                                    在线棋牌唯一官方网站:铝土矿供应局势将有所缓解,叠加氧化铝价格逐渐回归常态,铝价重心有所下移。电解铝新增产能较多且呈现向低成本区域转移趋势,未来电解铝供应预期宽松。 铝下游消费端暂无明显亮点,总体进入低增长期,明年基建投资或能部分拉动消费,但效果有限。预计铝价将进入筑底期,铝价最低下探12000-12500元/吨区间,最高将上探15000-15500元/吨区间。

                                    :环保、储量和品位下降使得全球锡市供应相对偏紧,预计2020年将会供需双弱供给更弱,需求相对优势明显拉动锡价,但由于锡不是强劲的需求拉动,价格快速上涨后刺激供应量扩大,供给过硬而消费又不是特别强劲的情况下,会抑制锡价持续上涨,预计2020年沪锡波动区间为14-15万。

                                    铅:全球角度看,全球铅矿供应有所增加,主因是除中国外矿山产量新增明显,同时中国矿山产量保持平稳,除中国外再生铅供应稳定。国内角度看,在全球铅精矿供应恢复的背景下,冶炼厂利润开始修复,精铅产量增加。再生铅在可观利润的驱动下,产量也是保持高增速。在供需过剩的格局下,铅价的重心仍将下移。预计2020年沪铅指数波动区间为:13000-15000元/吨。

                                    免责声明:

                                    本报告由恒泰期货研究所制作,未获得恒泰期货股份有限公司的书面授权,任何人和单位不得对本报告进行任何形式的修改、发布和复制。本报告基于本公司期货研究人员采用可信的公开资料和实地调研资料,但本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,且本报告中的资料、建议、预测均反映报告初次发布时的判断,可能会随时调整,报告中的信息或所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,本公司不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议作任何担保。在恒泰期货股份有限公司及其研究人员知情的范围内,恒泰期货股份有限公司及其期货研究人员以及财产上的利害关系人与所评价或推荐的产品不存在任何利害关系,同时提醒期货投资者,期市有风险,入市须谨慎。


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